CTRL Agency: Sports Betting Research Hub Launch
This week's digest on digital technology in the lives of young men.
CTRL Panel
It’s sports betting week at Boys & Men Online!
With support from Arnold Ventures, we launched a new Sports Betting Research Hub to curate research, track policy as it develops, and connect experts working on the issue. And we’re excited to announce it be led by the newest addition to our team: Jonathan D. Cohen!
To coincide with the launch, we’ve published a policy paper outlining the state of sports betting in America and exploring different regulatory approaches. My favorite bits are the typology of bettors (recreational, at-risk, and high-risk) and the menu of regulatory policies; I found both especially helpful for thinking clearly about tradeoffs.
Finally, please join us on February 5th at 1 pm ET for an online conversation with Steve Ruddock, Brianne Doura-Schawohl, and Chris Grove to discuss the key policy issues that will shape sports betting in 2026. RSVP here.
In our next edition, we’ll be back to our broader focus. See you then!
The Feed
Findings
Men aged 25-34 driving prediction market growth
A recent Ipsos survey found that a whopping 64% of men ages 25-34 have used a prediction market like Kalshi multiple times in the past week, dwarfing the 17% of men in the age group below (18-24). At the same time, similar shares of the two age groups engage in traditional online sports betting: 41% for 18-24 and 37% for 25-34. This is surprising as some analysts have suggested 18–20-year-olds—who are too young for traditional gambling in most states—are the drivers of skyrocketing trading volumes on prediction markets.
We’re genuinely a little surprised by this gap (and the size of it). If you have any theories, let us know!
Sports Betting and intimate partner violence?
After Miami’s surprise win over Ohio in the CFP quarterfinals, I kept thinking back to a widely circulated working paper by Matsuzawa and Arnesen showing that legal sports betting amplifies a known effect—that unexpected losses trigger spikes in intimate partner violence (IPV). The paper got a lot of coverage for establishing the a consensus that increased domestic violence is another harmful impact of gambling legalization.
But I’ve been (tentatively) convinced this might not be the right conclusion. Another working paper by Walker and Evans shows that—at least according to the original paper’s data—legal sports betting also decreases intimate partner violence when the home team is expected to win and then does win.
Figure 1: the relationship between game outcome and IPV, by sports betting legality, surrounding games where the home team was expected to win.
It’s not entirely clear what this nets out to; it’s possible that—because upset losses are comparatively rare—legalization might even decrease intimate partner violence overall.
From our DMs:
Matt Brown’s paper is one of our favorites; with some creative study design, he shows that bettors are systematically overoptimistic about their expected returns.
Policy & News
Senators urge CDC to look at sports betting
Last week, a bipartisan group of five senators led by Katie Britt (R-AL) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) penned a letter urging the CDC to study how sports gambling’s rapid rise is affecting teens and young adults. In particular, they asked the agency to incorporate questions about gambling into their Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System survey.
Kalshi barred from sports-related event contracts in Massachusetts
A Massachusetts judge said he will issue a preliminary injunction that would bar Kalshi from offering sports-related “event contracts” in the state. The ruling noted design similarities between Kalshi and traditional digital gambling, including “continuous feedback and engagement loops that are modeled after operant conditioning and slot machine dynamics, leaderboard rankings, and countdown clocks.”
Takes
A new book on the rise of sports gambling
Journalist Danny Funt’s Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling was released Tuesday, alongside a Vanity Fair excerpt. Based on that preview, we’re especially eager to hear Funt pull back the curtain on how betting companies are handling (or not handling) “responsible gaming” behind the scenes.
What else we’re reading
Key Wall Street Regulator Grapples With Crypto, Sports Gambling - Bloomberg
DraftKings Predictions Reviewed: It’s A Sportsbook App Playing Prediction Market - InGame
Wall Street groups hire traders to wade into prediction markets - Financial Times
Truist: Sports Predictions Have Limited Impact On Sportsbooks - Legal Sports Report
Events & Funding Opportunities
FTC Workshop on Age Verification Technologies | DC | Jan 28, 2026
International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking | Las Vegas, NV | May 26-28, 2026 | Call for abstracts closes January 23rd.
National Conference on Gambling Addiction & Responsible Gambling | Nashville, TN | July 22-24, 2026 | Call for presentations closed.
What did we miss this week? Do you have an upcoming conference or study we could feature in the next edition? Are you a sports betting researcher looking to chat about your working paper? Let us know at bmonline@substack.com, or shoot me a message here.
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