Last year, Canada’s Globe & Mail published an investigative series about the harms from expanded access to online sports gambling.
Paul Burns, then vice president of the Canadian Gaming Association, responded:
“the rate of problem gambling stabilizes to be approximately one per cent of the general population – period.”
It’s an oft-repeated claim by industry representatives. The logic goes something like this: Look, 1% of people are going to develop a gambling problem regardless of what’s legal. Even if you ban gambling, they’ll find an illegal bookie or offshore website. So better to offer a regulated market and fund prevention and treatment for those who experience harm.
There are two problems with the 1% number.
As we note in our Sensible Sports Betting policy framework, estimates vary depending on the definitions of problem gambling. Harm exists on a spectrum, and is often episodic. A bettor could go years without any problems, and then have an out-of-control night that leads to bankruptcy or worse. Another could experience serious financial or relationship problems without meeting the clinical threshold for a gambling disorder.
But the bigger problem with the 1% figure is that it is a relic of the past, when bettors still had to visit a casino or call a bookie. Today, we have casinos in our pockets, personalized promotions, constant notifications, and gambling products appearing alongside investments in finance apps. While researchers are catching up to the effects of the technological changes, journalists are starting to uncover how particular features are used to hook a new generation of gamblers—mostly young men.
ProPublica’s 30-minute documentary showing how DraftKings encouraged a journalist’s problematic play now has over 4.2 million views on YouTube. Jake Pearson spent 10 weeks mimicking risky gambling: escalating wagers, chasing losses, and betting more frequently—all clear warning signs of problematic play. DraftKings rewarded him with VIP status, personalized incentives, and continued opportunities to bet. (AIBM fellow Isaac Rose-Berman helped guide the experiment.)
Former employees are speaking out, too. My colleague Jonathan Cohen spoke with Jayden Betts, a former DraftKings analyst in his twenties. Betts built an internal tool to reduce spending on promotions that generated losses for the company. Soon, he discovered that same tool was used to target more vulnerable customers.
Moving gambling from casinos onto smartphones should have made safeguards more effective. Gambling companies have the data and the models to predict and prevent harm. But the same data can help target the most vulnerable bettors to boost profits.
Policymakers are starting to respond. NY’s Gaming Commission advanced proposed rules that restrict AI and algorithmic profiling for promos and require operators to identify at-risk bettors. Massachusetts sent every operator AI questions, with answers due on November 3. Louisiana delayed DraftKings’ full license renewal, citing “recent allegations,” and Sen. Blumenthal is pressing FanDuel over personalized videos sent to problem gamblers.
The Feed
Research
Teen boys’ lives, on-screen and off | Young Men Research Project
A survey of 1,194 U.S. boys ages 12–17 complicates the story of teenagers retreating to their devices: 84% played video games in the previous week, but 67% spent time outdoors, and 51% see friends outside school several times a week. However, there were differences by geography and class: frequent in-person socializing was reported by 61% of urban boys versus 34% of rural boys. And 60% of boys in households earning at least $150,000 played a sport in the previous week, compared with 26% in households earning less than $30,000.
Most boys report at least three hours of daily screen time outside school—mostly gaming with others and watching creators, while just 8% named posting their own content among their main online activities. Among the 602 boys who wrote in a favorite online personality, MrBeast dominated. Not a single boy named Andrew Tate, Fresh & Fit, or Clavicular.
Stay tuned for an upcoming podcast episode with YRMP director, Charlie Sabgir, to discuss more findings from the survey.
Legalized sports betting linked to increased mental health care use
Using nearly 62 million enrollee-years of U.S. insurance claims from 2016–2023, researchers compared changes in states that legalized online sports betting with those that had not. Among men, legalization was associated with increases of 0.57 percentage points in antidepressant use and 0.67 percentage points in outpatient anxiety diagnoses. The quasi-experimental design measures treatment use—not necessarily new illness—and does not establish that those receiving care were bettors.
Where Americans find community online — Pew
Men and women are equally likely to belong to an online community (36%), but women are three times as likely to join one specifically for their gender (15% versus 5%). Gaming is a particularly important source of community for younger adults, though respondents were split on the meaning they get from their online relationships: 47% of Americans consider online relationships less meaningful than in-person ones. Open-ended responses described communities built around sports, gaming, hobbies, neighborhoods, music, and medical conditions, illustrating how community can emerge from a specific interest or need, rather than an explicit search for friendship. (n=9,750 U.S. adults May 26–June 1).
What stories do boys want? — Center for Scholars & Storytellers
In a survey of 1,537 U.S. respondents ages 10–24, boys and young men ranked action and superheroes highest among the most desired topics, followed by hopeful stories about people beating the odds, people with lives like theirs, and friendships. Across the full sample, seeing a movie in a theater was the most appealing of six proposed weekend activities when money and access were no obstacle, followed by playing a new video game and attending a concert.
Policy
Italy and European authorities scrutinize in-game spending. Italy is leading coordinated consumer-protection action involving Microsoft-group games, with scrutiny of virtual currencies and practices affecting children.
Utah sues Kalshi over alleged illegal gambling. The state is asking a court to stop the company from offering wagers in Utah and require location checks to enforce the restriction.
Eight states sue OpenAI over ChatGPT’s safety claims. Coordinated lawsuits allege that the company marketed ChatGPT as safe while concealing risks.
What else we’re reading (and listening to)
Why Americans Stopped Falling in Love — Derek Thompson interviewing Daniel Cox
From Disengaged To Selective: The Profiles Of Young Adult Daters — IFS
How to Know if Your Porn Use Has Actually Become a Problem – Separating Fact from Fear by Lauren Clark, Men’s Health
Help! My boyfriend is dating a video game character by Hatti Rex, Dazed
Churches Are Finally Making the Moral Case Against Sports Betting by McKay Coppins, The Atlantic
‘You Barely Understand Regular Money’: Why Young Men Keep Gambling by Victoria Guida, Politico
A Bet That Young People Are Willing to Make by Will Gottsegen, from The Atlantic’s new newsletter on gambling
Inside Polymarket’s Paid Quote-Retweet Esports Program by Mikhail Klimentov, Aftermath
Events & Funding Opportunities
Open Call for Proposals: Communities Leading on AI | Humanity AI | Initial Application due October 21
Navigating the Manosphere: Harmful Online Masculinity Content and Youth | Virtual | October 28
Family Online Safety Institute Conference | Washington, D.C. | November 19
What did we miss this week? Do you have an upcoming conference or study we could feature in the next edition? Do you have an intuition about how pathways into problematic gambling may have changed over the past decade? Let us know at bmonline@substack.com, or shoot me a message here.
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