CTRL Agency - The Wild West of Prediction Markets
This week's digest on digital technology in the lives of young men.
CTRL Panel
Last week the Wall Street Journal reported that Polymarket paid dozens of mostly college-aged social media creators to make videos placing fake bets on a near-perfect fake copy of their website. Of the 778 videos that showed a bet being placed, all were on the simulated site and at least 69 of the bets shown as wins would actually have been losses. Polymarket then paid a separate army of “clippers” to repost the content, targeting Americans (clippers were only paid if 60%+ of their audience was U.S.-based) despite the platform being banned from offering its crypto exchange to U.S. users since 2022.
I asked our sports betting policy lead Jonathan Cohen for his thoughts:
Of all the absurd things about prediction markets, advertising may be the most absurd. The platforms have taken advantage of the basically nonexistent rules governing their marketing to engage in some of the scuzziest and shadiest tactics imaginable. This might be a short term boost for the company, but will lead to a swifter and harsher crackdown
For more on the proliferation of gambling, check out last week’s webinar with CNN Commentator and AIBM fellow Kyla Scanlon, Fanatics CEO Matt King, and AIBM’s Sports Betting Policy Lead Jonathan Cohen.
And if you like our work or know someone who does, Boys & Men Online is hiring a part-time Digital Media Consultant for July-December 2026. You can find out more about the role and apply here.
The Feed
Sports betting legalization increased food hardship
A new NBER working paper finds that legalizing sports betting reduced household food sufficiency by 2.1% among working-age adults without a college degree — an estimated 10.5% decline among active bettors. Using Census Household Pulse Survey data from nine states that legalized between 2021 and 2023, the authors find that food insufficiency emerges within two months of legalization, persists for three to five months, and tracks the NFL season. The declines are largest among 25-44-year-olds and racial/ethnic minorities, and amount to an additional 284,000 food-insufficient households.
Leaked internal TikTok documents obtained by The Times show the degree to which the company was aware of their products’ addictive qualities.
A 2023 document describes TikTok as using “coercive design tactics that detract from user agency such as infinite scroll, constant notifications and the ‘slot machine’ effect.”
A “Screen Time Management One Pager” defines six or more hours a day as “objectively harmful usage” and states that 10 million users (1.3% of daily active users, ) meet that threshold. A separate study estimates 3% of child users qualify.
TikTok’s data shows 19% of 13-15-year-olds and 25% of 16-17-year-olds are active on TikTok between midnight and 5am.
A “Digital Wellbeing Product Strategy” document acknowledged that “compulsive usage on TikTok is rampant” and that “the advertising-based business model encourages optimisation for time spent on the app”
Psychosocial effects of digital media use on boys and men
A new review in Current Psychiatry Reports, partially funded by our president Richard Reeves, synthesizes the evidence on how social media, gaming, and AI chatbots affect adolescent boys and young men in particular. They find that:
Boys’ social media risks centers on risky body modification trends
Gender is an independent risk factor for disordered gaming, but gaming also has real prosocial value: 94% of boys game with others and over half say it’s improved their friendships.
53% of adolescent boys have used generative AI, and 4-6% are turning to AI companions for emotional support rather than human help.
What else we’re reading
Americans and AI 2026: Chatbots, Smart Devices and Views on Impact - Pew
Interaction with AI Companions and Psychological Well-being - Zhang et al.
A Viral Knicks Moment, Brought to You by a Prediction Market - New York Times
Mark Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Create a Prediction Markets App - New York Times
Why Fines Alone Won’t Make Social Media Safer For Kids - Time
Feds move to formally allow sports “trading” on prediction markets - Axios
U.S. Surgeon General’s Advisory: Surgeon General’s Warning on the Harms of Screen Use
Gambling-Related Financial Harm: A Public Health Approach to Financial Stability in a Digital Era
Colorado’s gamble on sports betting: a 3-part special report - The Denver Post
How your phone keeps you scrolling ... even when you want to stop - NPR: The Indicator
Events & Funding Opportunities
National Conference on Gambling Addiction & Responsible Gambling | Nashville, TN | July 22-24, 2026 | Call for presentations closed.
What did we miss this week? Do you have an upcoming conference or study we could feature in the next edition? How do you think prediction market advertising should regulated? Let us know at bmonline@substack.com, or shoot me a message here.
If you haven’t already, please subscribe to stay up to date on Boys & Men Online.
And share!
It is infuriating that these companies are allowed to deliberately target our boys this way